From the Desk of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear

Is a Recession in 2023 Likely?: 7 Indicators to Watch

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." — Peter Lynch

As the ups and downs of the markets continue, we receive questions daily on whether we think that a recession in 2023 is likely. As you know, a healthy economy experiences recessions from time to time. Since 1945, the U.S. economy has experienced 13 different recessions. Most downward turns have lasted only about ten months, while periods of economic growth typically last about 57 months. Even the Great Recession of 2008 lasted only about 18 months.

Chatter about the possibility of a recession has been going on for months since the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first and second quarters of 2022 turned negative. However, there's no official announcement, even after two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, because other economic indicators were strong in the same time frame. So, although we can’t predict a recession, here are the indicators to watch.

First, What Is a Recession?

A recession is a significant drop in economic activity generally identified by negative GDP in two consecutive quarters. Other leading economic indicators include:

• A drop in employment levels
• A decrease in consumer spending
• A reduction in industrial output

These indicators have to be significant, widespread, and prolonged for an official announcement to be made.

Review of Current Economic Indicators

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces a recession when economic indicators show signs of a continued slowdown. Here's a review of the current economic indicators.

1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

The U.S. GDP had a positive growth of 2.9 percent in the final quarter of 2022. This was after a 3.2 percent growth in GDP in the third quarter. If two consecutive quarters with a negative GDP define a recession, the U.S. is not currently experiencing one.

2. Unemployment Rate

The U.S. labor market remains strong despite concerns for further slowdown and economic unsteadiness. The unemployment rate in December was 3.5 percent, lower than in December 2021. The job market was tight toward the end of the year, with the employment rate hitting a half-century low.

3. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The inflation rate remains above the Federal Reserve's two to three percent target. This has a significant effect on purchasing power. In December 2022, CPI was at a positive 6.5 percent, down from 7.1 percent in November.

4. The Stock Market

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell into a bear market in September 2022. This means it fell by more than 20 percent since its previous highest.

5. ISM Manufacturing Index

December 2022 was the second consecutive month that the manufacturing index fell in more than 29 months. The manufacturing PMI dropped from 49 percent in November to 48.4 percent in December 2022. This shows lower economic activity in the sector.

6. Industrial Production

Although industrial production in December 2022 was down 0.7 percent from the previous month, it was up 1.6 percent from 2021. This means that industrial output might appear stronger than a year ago.

7. Retail Sales

December 2022 retail sales were down 1.1 percent since the previous month but up six percent from 2021. This shows that the average consumer is careful about spending.

What Experts Are Saying

The Chief Economists of the World Economic Forum's Community expect a recession in 2023. Seventy-five percent of those surveyed for the Chief Economist Outlook believe this. According to the survey, 18 percent consider a recession extremely likely, compared to nine percent in the previous September 2022 survey.

They further anticipate monetary tightening in Europe and the U.S. as geopolitical tensions continue to affect the global economy. All the respondents expect weak economic growth in Europe, while 91 percent expect weak growth in the U.S. This is a significant increase compared to the previous survey, where 86 percent expected weak growth in Europe and 64 percent expected it in America.

How Long and Severe Will a Recession in 2023 Potentially Be?

Since recessions have many indicators, NBER, the agency that officially calls them, has difficulty predicting their length and severity. Although the GDP is a significant indicator and was negative for two consecutive quarters, the agency couldn't announce a recession because other indicators didn't confirm a recession.

Final Thoughts on the Likelihood of a Recession in 2023

Recessions are an inherent part of an economy and, unfortunately, affect the markets and investments. However, history tells us that markets recover over time. Staying invested and using a sound investment strategy, such as Voyage, is the best defense against times of economic downturn. We can’t predict whether a recession will be a reality in the coming year, but we can help prepare your portfolio to best weather 2023, with or without a recession.

Please do not hesitate to reach out with questions or concerns about your financial plan.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Great wealth, great responsibility for elite young athletes

High-profile competitors – including those in college – can profit tremendously from name, image and likeness (NIL) deals. But making sudden wealth permanent requires a long-term focus.

In 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the NCAA’s ban on players receiving compensation other than scholarships failed to meet statutory muster. Soon after, the first name, image and likeness (NIL) deals started to emerge. And now, massively popular student-athlete influencers with social media followings in the hundreds of thousands – or millions, in some cases – are able to benefit from their personal brands.

As more deals emerge, it appears endorsement deal negotiations may become part of these athletes’ unofficial education. For college athletes (and anyone navigating a windfall), this new world brings both opportunity and risk.

Let’s talk numbers

Realistically, except for spotlight players in major sports, the value of NIL deals for college athletes may be limited, according to a survey of sports marketing insiders performed by ESPN. A men’s basketball or football player might expect to earn between $5,000 and $20,000 in NIL contracts during their tenure – mostly from niche or hometown brands. An athlete in a non-revenue sport like track and field might expect to earn between $1,000 and $3,000 in NIL deals.

However, All-American athletes could land up to $1 million in endorsement deals, according to ESPN’s panel. And for a generational headliner, the sky’s the limit.

A player’s established social media audience is expected to be a major com­ponent of their brand’s worth, according to a study by AthleticDirectorU and the research firm Navigate performed in 2019, before the Supreme Court’s deci­sion. That is, a championship-winning college quarterback doesn’t neces­sarily have a higher endorsement value than a standout gymnast with gobs of Instagram followers.

The risks of sudden wealth

Lottery winners, surprised inheri­tors, and sports and entertainment stars have a lot in common, financially speaking. And the stories of lavish lifestyles followed by sudden collapses are ripped from bankruptcy filings and spread like modern morality tales.

Those who experience sudden gain and loss say it’s not always because of super­cars and mansions. Strategic, holistic wealth manage­ment isn’t typically learned on the fast road to fame, and since sports stars aren’t typical employees with their sponsors, it’s easy for them to get caught underprepared for taxes, among many other things.

Some have also told stories of family and friends coming to them with dire financial needs and a feeling of enti­tlement, strangers with sob stories claiming their lives are in their hands, and grifters of every sort. Paranoia, isolation and behavioral shifts have followed, leading to what psychologists have called sudden wealth syndrome.

Strategies for saving and spending can make it easier to compartmentalize and handle these concerns, especially with the help of a trusted third party.

The goal: Make the temporary permanent

Earnings from fame are often short-lived – a college sports career is at most four years, and the public’s memory fades quickly. The top financial goal after any endorsement should be converting its temporary earnings into a lifelong wealth strategy.

For more modest NIL earners, using endorsement checks to invest in tax-advantaged or tax-deferred finan­cial instruments like traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs or health savings accounts (HSAs) can help reduce the amount of top-bracket taxes they are paying and provide a strong foundation for effective wealth building.

For superstars, it gets a lot more complicated.

Managing wealth can be over­whelming even when it’s built over a long career, let alone when needing to spin up a financial plan, investment portfolio, tax strategy and maybe a limited liability corpora­tion, essentially overnight.

Taxes, in particular, will be high com­pared to many other high earners who gain wealth through capital investment. Maxing out tax-advantaged investment plans every year can be part of the strategy, but there are many options depending on goals.

If the athlete is charitably minded, it may also be a good idea to create a philanthropic account like a donor advised fund, allowing them to compartmentalize personal requests while reducing their tax liabilities during high-earning years.

High-earning young athletes – as well as most young adults – should seek a professional team for guidance in understanding the complexities of strategies that can help grow and pre­serve wealth. A financial advisor, tax attorney and accountant with a track record of working with high-net-worth individuals can help.

Young athletes are a prime target for financial con artists. When selecting your financial team, it’s important to check their track records and sniff out bad actors. Here are some red flags:

• Guarantees about invest­ment returns or “beating the market”
• No established community presence
• Rushes clients into decisions
• It’s unclear how they are paid
• Pushes exclusive investmentsMakes clients feel overwhelmed

A job for every dollar

Even the best investment strategies will come short against excessive spending.

A zero-based budget is a good framework for setting boundaries while enjoying newfound wealth. With it, budgeters earmark every dollar, setting aside portions for things like taxes and housing, investments and retirement plans, cash savings, and luxuries and entertainment. There can be as many buckets as needed to suit one’s particular circumstances. It also makes it easier to avoid trying to keep up with the Joneses, because in the world of sports entertainment, there is always a bigger Jones.

According to Sports Illustrated, 78% of NFL players face bankruptcy within two years of leaving the game. For NBA players, the rate is 60% by five years.

Many universities and sports con­ferences are creating or contracting resources to help college athletes navigate the complexities of this new world. One example is Michigan State’s EverGreen program, which aims to help its athletes understand their market value, the specifics of NIL contracts and the many financial considerations.

Great expectations

While fame fades, fortune doesn’t have to. Vanishingly few athletes make it to the pros, but being an NCAA athlete is a compelling line on a resume. It can be a major stepping stone for a young professional starting the next stage of their life. Earnings made from their sporting years amplify that advantage, but only if they are used in a way to secure a better future.

Sources: CBS News; CBS Sports; ESPN; Sports Illustrated; Forbes; Kiplinger; Statista; NILNetwork.com; AthleticDirectorU.com; The Washington Post; NPR; theonlycolors. com; KTRK-TV Houston

Donors are urged to consult their attorneys, accountants or tax advisors with respect to questions relating to the deductibility of various types of contributions to a donor advised fund for federal and state tax pur­poses. To learn more about the potential risks and benefits of donor advised funds, please contact your financial advisor.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

Skinny Salmon Tacos Recipe With Red Cabbage Cilantro Slaw & Chipotle Sauce

by 30Seconds Food

What happens when Mediterranean meets Mexican food? This easy skinny salmon taco recipe with cabbage and cilantro slaw and chipotle sauce! How delicious does that sound for a light, healthy dinner?

The salmon fillets are seasoned with chili powder, ground cumin and oregano before being baked until moist and flaky. The cabbage slaw is finely shredded red cabbages, cilantro, green onions, minced jalapeno, lime juice and mayonnaise. So simple and refreshing. The creamy chipotle sauce is mayonnaise, sour cream, chipotle in adobo sauce, lime juice and garlic. Combine all those flavors and you have one tasty taco!

You could easily substitute leftover salmon in this fish taco recipe and cut the cooking time out. If you don't like salmon, try cod, redfish or tilapia instead. This tasty, flavor-packed 30- minute recipe will change how you think about taco night.

Cuisine: Mexican/Mediterranean Prep Time: 15 minutes

Cook Time: 10 minutes Total Time: 25 minutes Servings: 4

Ingredients

• salmon fillet (1 to 11/2 pounds)
• 2 teaspoons chili powder
• 1 teaspoon ground cumin
• 1/2 teaspoon dried oregano
• olive oil

Red Cabbage Cilantro Slaw

• 2 cups finely shredded red cabbage
• 1/4 cup chopped fresh cilantro
• 2 green onions, chopped
• 1 tablespoon minced jalapeno (optional)
• 1 tablespoon lime juice
• 2 tablespoons mayonnaise Chipotle Sauce
• 1/8 cup mayonnaise
• 1/2 cup sour cream
• 1 chipotle in adobo sauce (here's how to save chipotles in adobo sauce for later)
• 1- 2 teaspoons lime juice
• 1 clove garlic For Serving
• taco shells or tortillas
• lime wedges

Here's how to make it:

1. To make the slaw, put the cabbage, cilantro, green onion and jalapeno into a bowl. Combine the lime juice and mayonnaise. Season with salt and pepper. Add it to the cabbage mixture and toss to coat.
2. To make the chipotle sauce, combine all the ingredients in a blender. Pulse until smooth. Season with salt and pepper.
3. To make the salmon, put it onto a greased baking sheet. Brush with a little olive oil. Combine the chili powder, cumin and oregano. Season the salmon with salt and pepper. Sprinkle with the seasoning. Bake in a preheated 450-degree F oven for about 5 to 10 minutes, depending on how thick the fish is. Remove and flake into large chunks.
4. To serve, fill taco shells or tortillas with some salmon, top with slaw and drizzle with the chipotle sauce. Garnish with lime wedges.

Note: 30Seconds is a participant in the Amazon affiliate advertising program and this post contains affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission or fees if you make a purchase via those links.

Recipe cooking times and servings are approximate. Need to convert cooking and baking measurements? Here are some kitchen conversion charts. Here's how to submit your recipes to 30Seconds.

Skinny Salmon Tacos Recipe With Red Cabbage Cilantro Slaw & Chipotle Sauce | Seafood | 30Seconds Food

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

How different types of investment income are taxed

Learn how interest income, capital gains, dividends and retirement income are treated at filing time.

The federal tax system is not exactly straightforward. There are myriad deductions and credits, various tax brackets, additional payroll and Medicare surtaxes, and a slew of different categories to help us define our income … for tax purposes.

You’d think there’d be only two: regular income and investment income. Regular income would be what you get in your paycheck, and investment income would be the money you earn from investments. But even something as seemingly simple as investment income has subcategories, each taxed differently from the next. Let’s break it down.

Interest income

There are certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts (rare these days), and bonds. Interest income becomes part of your regular income and is generally taxed at your marginal rate during the year in which you receive it, even if it’s reinvested. This is what gets reported on your 1099-INT forms.

Capital gains

When you sell a security, any positive difference between what you paid and what you earned is called a capital gain. If you bought 1,000 shares for example, at $14 each and sold them for $20,000, you’d have a $6,000 gain that would be subject to taxes. For most people, securities held over a year (long-term capital gains) will either incur a 0%, 15% or 20% tax. Short-term capital gains are taxed at your ordinary income tax rate.

Dividends

Dividend income is derived from equities that pay shareholders dividends on a regular basis. Qualified dividends are treated to the same preferred rates as long-term capital gains.

Retirement income

Withdrawals from traditional IRAs, 401(k)s or annuities and pension income are typically taxable, while withdrawals from Roth IRAs or employer-sponsored plans funded with after-tax contributions are not taxable. But some subcategories are trickier. If you make more than $25,000, or $32,000 if married filing jointly, up to 85% of your Social Security benefits will be taxed. Income from an immediate annuity is taxed if the annuity was purchased with money that has never been taxed, say in an IRA. Interest income from municipal bonds is generally exempt from federal taxes, but it could still be subject to state or local income taxes, alternative minimum tax, or partial taxation of the income in certain instances.

These examples are merely guidelines. It’s important to remember that taxes aren’t the only thing to consider. Your personal tax and financial advisors can help you select appropriate income-generating securities for your needs and determine your exact tax liability.

Next steps

As you plan for what taxes you’ll pay on your investments, start by:

• Understanding the different types of income
• Considering your entire investment portfolio
• Asking your advisor about the tax liability for each of your investments

Raymond James does not provide tax services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

To convert, or not to convert to Roth IRA – tax is the question

When planning for retirement, it has long been known that taxation is one of many associated mazes.

Just like the labyrinth of legend, tax law is constantly changing with time and often seems purpose-built to instill confusion. With uncertainty on the horizon and potential rate increases looming, the question on many recent and future retirees’ minds is whether to pay taxes now or pay them later.

The concept of a Roth IRA is nothing new. You pay taxes on income at the time of earning to avoid taxation upon withdrawal. For many, this is a decision that was made early on in their careers and has slowly become more impactful as savings continue to grow.

For those who made the decision to put their retirement savings into a Roth IRA from the start, there isn’t too much to consider. Their taxes are paid, and the account balance they see upon withdrawal is what they get, plain and simple. But what about those who elected not to use a Roth IRA for some or all of their retirement savings? Should they consider conversion?

Should you convert to a Roth IRA?

If you chose not to pay income tax as you earn and are waiting until retirement, you might not have considered changing your mind. For many, this makes sense. Targeting a percentage of your pre-retirement income to live on throughout retirement is a very common strategy, after all. If your retirement income is less than your income while earning, you can pay a lower tax rate. However, that relies on the tax rate of your retirement income remaining lower than the rate you would pay as you’re earning. And as any shrewd investor knows, nobody can predict the future.

That’s not to say that there are no factors that are well within your control that are useful in making this decision. In fact, most Roth IRA conversions are the result of changes to one’s personal financial situation, not a reaction to a potential change in the overall financial landscape.

Some of the reasons you might choose to convert to a Roth IRA are:

• You expect your tax bracket to stay the same or go up in retirement – Paying taxes up front when you expect they will be the same or higher when you withdraw can both save money in the long term and provide a clearer picture of your balances upon retirement.
• You want to avoid being required to take minimum distributions (RMD) – A Roth IRA conversion will eliminate the RMDs associated with a Traditional IRA.
• You want to transfer unused tax-free funds to the beneficiaries of your estate – A Roth IRA conversion can be a great estate planning tool if you intend to leave portions of your retirement savings to your beneficiaries since the funds will not be taxed upon distribution.
• You want to make your retirement savings more diverse – Having a tax-diverse retirement plan can help to add flexibility to your expense management and allow for more predictable income and cash flow.
• You have the means to pay conversion tax without dipping into the savings themselves – Having the ability to pay taxes now on your retirement savings without needing to rely on the savings themselves for that expense can add security and help reduce uncertainty regarding how much tax you may pay later.

Similarly, there are also reasons to avoid a Roth IRA conversion. It might not be your best option if:

• You need to access the converted funds within five years – When converting to a Roth IRA, there is a five-year waiting period before you can begin to distribute funds without owing an additional 10% tax penalty.
• You would be significantly burdened by the conversion taxes – Just because you’ll need to pay taxes on your retirement income eventually doesn’t mean that now is the best time for you to do it, especially if doing so means depleting other assets that would otherwise serve as a source of income or appreciation.
• You are not completely sure about the decision – One of the most important things to consider when contemplating a Roth IRA conversion is that it cannot be undone, so it is crucial to work with your trusted financial advisor and weigh the pros and cons for your own personal situation.

What we know about the unknown

Recently, there has been a spike in interest among retirees regarding Roth IRA conversion resulting from rumors, reports, promises and other speculation about the future of taxation on retirement wealth. The reality of the situation is that only you and your financial advisor can determine the right path for your retirement. Make sure that if you do decide on a Roth IRA conversion, it’s for the right reasons. Changes in the system are only one factor in your financial situation, your retirement and your choices.

Next steps

• Get together with your financial advisor and discuss whether a Roth IRA conversion is right for you
• Do some research and gain insight into the future of taxation so you can best decide for yourself if you need to make changes to your retirement plan
• Don’t make any hasty decisions that will affect your retirement and remember that any changes to taxation will take time, which you can use to make a solid and stable plan
• Consider the implications a Roth IRA conversion could have on your estate, especially if you intend to leave a significant portion of your retirement savings behind to your beneficiaries

Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax advice. You should discuss any tax matters with the appropriate professional.

Unless certain criteria are met, Roth IRA owners must be 59 ½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted. Additionally, each converted amount may be subject to its own five-year holding period. Converting a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA has tax implications. Investors should consult a tax advisor before deciding to do a conversion.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.