– Evan Shear, CFP® and Dale Crossley, JD, CrossleyShear Wealth Management

When you're investing in the stock market, a variety of factors affect where and how you choose to invest your money. Current and projected interest rates are at the top of that list. With continued headlines about rising inflation, many investors have concerns about the potential for rising interest rates in the future. When interest rates increase, they can have a significant impact on the stock market, the economy, and your own investments.

How Rising Interest Rates Affect the Stock Market

When interest rates increase, it can be tempting to make changes to your investments based on your emotions. While it's true that the stock market is often negatively affected by interest rates in the short term, there is still potential for long-term growth in your investments. Before making a decision, we always advise our clients to take a step back and consider how our proprietary investment process, Voyage, considers factors such as interest rate fluctuations in your long-term financial plan.

When interest rates and the 10-year Treasury yield increase, stock prices can shift downward, prompting many investors to sell before prices tank. Stocks that were popular for short-term investments tend to suffer, and popular investments from the prior period may take a hit. However, the interest rate isn't the only factor that affects stock prices. Investors also consider the long-term interest fluctuations, employment numbers, corporate earnings, and larger fiscal policies such as taxes and the federal budget.

How Higher Interest Affects Economic Growth

The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department work together to create a stable economic environment, particularly in times of economic difficulty. In the long term, the stock market has proven resilient, even in the face of extreme economic downturns like the "Great Recession" of 2008 or the more recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Part of that resilience comes from the Federal Reserve's control over interest rates and other market operations. When the Federal Reserve increases interest rates, it helps to slow economic growth and prevent excessive inflation. In this way, higher interest rates help stabilize the economy and keep prices for goods and services within an affordable range for consumers.

On the other hand, rising interest rates can reduce consumer spending by increasing borrowing costs for both consumers and businesses. Higher borrowing costs can result in less consumer spending, which in turn reduces corporate earnings. For that reason, stock prices tend to fall when interest rates increase.

Therefore, for the Fed, the key is to raise interest rates enough to curb inflation while keeping them low enough to avoid harming consumer spending and business growth. This allows businesses to continue reporting consistent earnings, which encourages stock prices to rise.

What Rising Interest Rates Mean for Your Stock Portfolio

When interest rates increase, stock investors start to look at long-term investments such as bonds and certificates of deposit, where rising interest rates will create a higher yield on investment. Volatility in the stock market tends to send investors in the direction of safer, fixed-income options.

It is important to note that not all stocks will perform poorly when interest rates rise. Utilities, healthcare, and household goods are all defensive investments that can yield returns even during an economic downturn. Investors will often turn to these investments and pull out of more risky sectors until interest rates stabilize again.

Finally, rising interest rates can present you with buying opportunities when demand for equities falls. Falling demand can reduce stock prices for equities, and since the housing market rebounds strongly after downturns, equity investment can be a lucrative option.

Plan for Your Future with CrossleyShear Wealth Management 

In short, while rising interest rates do affect your stock investments, there are a number of ways to turn these shifts to your advantage. Our team, together with our proprietary investment process, Voyage, thoughtfully manages your short- and long-term investments, particularly in times of volatility. Contact us to learn more or schedule a checkpoint meeting. Schedule an appointment today.

Any opinions are those of Evan Shear and Dale Crossley and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred toin this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected including asset allocation and diversification. Sector investments are companies engaged in business related to a specific sector. They are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. There are additional risks associated with investing in an individual sector, including limited diversification.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prepared by Muse Marketing + Creative for use by Financial Advisors.

*Trust services offered through Raymond James Trust, N.A., a subsidiary of Raymond James Financial, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management and CSsports are not registered broker dealers and are independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.

Securities are offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

– Evan Shear, CFP® and Dale Crossley, JD, CrossleyShear Wealth Management

What has Happened to Stocks When Corporate Taxes Were Raised?

Contrary to popular belief, tax increases have historically been good for the stock market. The main proposal that has been discussed since before Biden was elected, is to return taxes to their 2016 levels, raising corporate taxes from 21% up to 28%. Recently, Biden expressed interest in forgoing the corporate tax increase in exchange for a minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. This recent change is an effort to garner support from Republicans for his infrastructure bill, but either proposal is a potential tax hike on corporations. According to BMO Capital Markets equity strategist Brian Belski, past corporate tax hikes have actually heralded positive price returns, with higher gains annually than periods when the corporate tax rate was reduced. In addition, those years reflected above-average GDP growth.

Are Overall Returns Lower When Taxes are Higher?

Taxes can be divided into three specific categories: personal, corporate, and capital gains. Large tax increases are not common across the board. In fact, Fidelity indicates that large tax increases have only occurred about 23 times in the past 70 years. 1993 was the most recent tax hike that affected all three categories, including corporate taxes.

In spite of the generally accepted idea that higher taxation results in lower returns, history shows that there is little evidence of any appreciable impact on equity market returns. As Belski indicates, as far back as 1945, the S&P 500 actually showed greater gains during years when the corporate tax rate was below 35%. It is equally important to note that the current proposed tax rate of 28% is still one of the lowest in U.S. history.

Are Earnings Lower When Corporate Tax Rates Increase?

Similarly, corporate tax rates do not tend to negatively affect company earnings. In fact, Belski states that U.S. companies have experienced significant earnings growth during periods of high corporate taxation. Since earnings growth directly affects stock prices, it is critical to note that increased corporate taxes historically do not affect company earnings, and may in fact have a positive net effect.

What This Means for Future Corporate Tax Rate Increases

While companies may rail against higher tax rates, the simple fact is that they have historically enhanced economic stability overall. Infrastructure spending and increased economic stimulus generated by higher corporate taxes is more likely to cause an increase in consumer demand for products, spurring greater company growth and increasing returns.

How Soon Can We Expect Corporate Tax Increases?

The current reduced rates are set to increase back to their 2016 levels in 2026 if Congress does not pass a tax reform bill before then. The razor-thin margins in the House and Senate make it difficult to predict if Biden's current proposed tax policies will pass into law. With the prospect of higher tax rates looming large, investors will likely continue to be concerned. However, historical data indicates that higher corporate tax rates typically have a positive effect on corporate earnings and the stock market. While higher corporate taxes may cause temporary concern for many companies, it is unlikely that they will result in significant losses or stock selloffs. Rather, companies can expect higher stock value, increased consumer spending, and greater company growth, as well as an overall healthier economy.

We’re always focused on how to best optimize your financial plan to weather inevitable market fluctuations. If you have questions about your financial plan, please reach out. We’re here to help. Schedule an appointment today.

Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-tax-hikes-next-big-investor-worry-morning-brief-095645526.html

https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/what-stock-market-history-tells-us-about-corporate-tax-hikes

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/tax-hikes-history

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prepared by Muse Marketing + Creative for use by Financial Advisors.

*Trust services offered through Raymond James Trust, N.A., a subsidiary of Raymond James Financial, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management and CSsports are not registered broker dealers and are independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.

Securities are offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

– Evan Shear, CFP® and Dale Crossley, JD, CrossleyShear Wealth Management

If you’re in a higher-income bracket and have been saving for retirement, you likely have a traditional IRA in your portfolio. There are two types of IRAs for individual investors: traditional and Roth. Meanwhile, businesses can set up SEP IRAs or SIMPLE IRAs. However, higher-income individual investors can also set up what are called back door Roth IRAs. You may also be able to rollover your 401k into a Roth IRA.

We receive many questions about the tax advantages of the various types of IRAs. Routinely, we help our clients determine the feasibility of converting traditional IRA or 401k assets to Roth IRA assets, even if they earn more than the income limits determined by the IRS.

Only two things are guaranteed in life, and one of them is taxes.

If you're saving for retirement and looking for efficient tax strategies, traditional IRAs can be a great choice. They're a valuable tool to save money for your golden years.
If you're okay with making after-tax contributions for retirement, a Roth IRA may be a better choice.

Let's start with a quick overview of IRAs.

Traditional and Roth IRAs

According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), "An individual retirement arrangement (IRA) is a tax-favored personal savings arrangement, which allows you to set aside money for retirement." While these accounts can’t be held jointly with your spouse, your spouse can be a beneficiary in the event of your death.

• Traditional IRAs allow you to save for retirement with pre-tax funds. If you make early withdrawals, you incur fees and tax penalties.
• Roth IRAs require after-tax contributions. There are no taxes or penalties if you withdraw funds after the Roth IRA has been established for 5 years. Otherwise, you will be responsible for paying taxes and penalties. It’s important to know that the Roth five-year rule applies to the following instances: you withdraw account earnings, convert a traditional IRA to a Roth, and if a beneficiary inherits a Roth IRA.

IRAs have income limits, however, and we'll get to that in a moment.

Each system has advantages and disadvantages, depending on your tax bracket and retirement saving goals. However, both types of IRAs will likely earn better interest than a savings account and are virtually risk-free compared to other investments.

Traditional IRAs: Great for Keeping Your Taxable Income Low

The IRS strictly limits contributions to traditional IRAs. Currently, that cap is $6,000 per year if you're under 50. If you're on the cusp of a higher tax bracket and can stay in a lower bracket by opening a traditional IRA, it may be the perfect time to invest.

Roth IRAs: Retirement Savings When You Can Manage the Tax Bill

According to the IRS, contributions to a Roth IRA aren't tax-deductible. You don't report contributions on your tax return. Therefore, qualified distributions or distributions that are a return of excess contributions (and withdrawn by the tax-filing deadline in April) aren't taxed. Roth IRAs must be designated as such when they're set up.

The challenge for many high earners, though, is Roth IRA income limits. For the 2020 tax year, the government allows only married couples filing jointly with modified adjusted gross incomes below $206,000 or $139,000 for a single individual to contribute to a Roth IRA. In 2021, the limits are $208,000 / $140,000.

However, you can transfer funds from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA! It's called a backdoor Roth IRA, and you'll need to pay some taxes to get it done.

The Scoop on Backdoor Roth IRAs

According to the IRS, "Regardless of the amount of your adjusted gross income, you may be able to convert amounts from either a traditional [IRA]into a Roth IRA."

In other words, a backdoor Roth IRA allows high-income individuals to sidestep Roth's income limits.

Here's how it works:

• You put money in a traditional IRA
• Convert contributed funds into a Roth IRA.
• Pay some taxes on those funds.
• You now have a “backdoor” Roth IRA

Even though your earnings exceed the Roth IRA income limits, this back door allows you to grow your savings tax-free!

That said, you’ll want to take steps to minimize costly mistakes and reduce your legal liabilities. Before making any major moves with your retirement savings, be sure to talk to your financial advisor as well as qualified tax professional and consider these drawbacks to backdoor IRAs:

• Don’t forget, money converted from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA falls under a Roth five-year rule.
• So, if you need that money soon and can’t wait five years to withdraw it, you may owe taxes and a 10% penalty.
• The withdrawal may push you into a higher tax bracket. You want to avoid that, so only convert enough funds to keep you below that threshold.

In addition, if you're thinking of using money from your withdrawal to pay the required taxes, don’t. You'll be sacrificing any interest your money could be earning. There's also a risk if you're under 59-½: you may incur a 10% early withdrawal penalty.

Rollover your 401k into a Roth IRA

In addition, you may be able to rollover your 401k directly into a Roth IRA if you meet certain requirements.

• You separate from your employer, retire, or in some cases, if you are 59-½.
• Depending on your current employers’ rules, they may permit an in-service rollover, but it’s best to discuss the pros and cons of this option with your financial advisor.

Like the traditional IRA conversion, you’ll owe taxes, so it’s important to carefully review this strategy with your financial advisor as well as qualified tax professional to determine whether paying taxes now, to reduce the burden later, is truly the best option for you.

At CrossleyShear Wealth Management, we know you've worked hard to plan for a retirement you'll enjoy. If you'd like to learn more about whether a backdoor Roth IRA, 401k rollover or traditional IRA is the best financial strategy for you, we're here to help. Schedule an appointment today.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Contributions to a traditional IRA may be tax-deductible depending on the taxpayer's income, tax-filing status, and other factors. Withdrawal of pre-tax contributions and/or earnings will be subject to ordinary income tax and, if taken prior to age 59 1/2, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty.

Like Traditional IRAs, contribution limits apply to Roth IRAs. In addition, with a Roth IRA, your allowable contribution may be reduced or eliminated if your annual income exceeds certain limits. Contributions to a Roth IRA are never tax deductible, but if certain conditions are met, distributions will be completely income tax free.

Unless certain criteria are met, Roth IRA owners must be 59½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted. Additionally, each converted amount may be subject to its own five-year holding period. Converting a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA has tax implications. Investors should consult a tax advisor before deciding to do a conversion.

While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

*Trust services offered through Raymond James Trust, N.A., a subsidiary of Raymond James Financial, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management and CSsports are not registered broker dealers and are independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.

Securities are offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

– Evan Shear, CFP® and Dale Crossley, JD, CrossleyShear Wealth Management

As we approach the last stretch of the 2020 presidential election, we know many of our clients and other investors are wondering how their portfolios will fare after a winner is declared. Typically, every candidate tries to woo voters by claiming they will make the economy stronger and that their rival will be bad news to the markets. As an investor, such talk will likely leave you wondering how the outcome of the election will affect your portfolio. So, what do the facts from historical data say?

The Party in the White House Doesn't Dictate the Performance of the Market
When it comes to the performance of the stock market, it doesn't matter which party wins the election. Data shows that in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928 to 2016, the S&P 500 had a positive return of approximately 11%. Yet, we had both Republican and Democratic presidents in that period. Thanks to this data, no party can claim to have a better track record on market performance. However, stocks tend to do better when Congress is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, most likely thanks to the checks and balances that this scenario provides.

Stay Invested Regardless of Who is in Power
During election periods, you are likely to see some signs of market volatility. This might tempt you to sell your investments and focus elsewhere. However, studies show that the portfolios that do best are those that stay invested regardless of the party in power. On the other hand, portfolios whose owners invested only when their preferred party was in office underperformed overwhelmingly. As an investor, it's wise to avoid moving in and out of the market based on how the political winds blow.

Don't Expect Radical Economic Changes that will Affect Your Portfolio
Sometimes we feel that a new candidate might introduce policies that will disrupt the markets significantly. However, this isn't exactly true. Regardless of any major policy changes introduced by new governments, the Dow Jones has typically averaged returns of around 10% each year over the past century.

Also, the outcome of major legislation is often unpredictable. For example, experts thought that the Affordable Care Act would make it difficult for small businesses to hire, but surprisingly over 8.6 million jobs have been created since 2010. Also, the Tax Cut and Jobs Act was created to boost business investments, yet its impact is yet to be felt.

Monetary Policy Matters More
Although we all expect the executive branch to be the driving force of the economy, it turns out that the feds play a bigger role. The monetary policies introduced by the Fed have more impact on the financial conditions, and data shows they can help or hurt any president regardless of their political affiliations. For instance, data shows that President Obama benefitted from generous interest rates during his term while President Trump was hurt by tighter measures during his first two years.

You Shouldn't be Overly Concerned About What Happens in Washington
The fact is, markets don't care much about the politics of the day. Some of the best market returns have been achieved even when an overwhelming number of voters polled felt the administration of the day was underperforming. Therefore, we don't believe our clients or any other investor should make their investments based upon what's happening on the political scene.

Key Takeaway
Although elections can have short-term effects on the stock markets, things typically return to normal after this period. It's okay to be concerned by some of the headlines and predictions, but don't be tempted to make an emotional decision. If you want to meet your investment goals, we believe that you should try to ignore the chatter, don't let politics drive your investment decisions and most importantly, focus on your long-term financial plan.

Sources:
https://www.thebalance.com/presidential-elections-and-stock-market-returns-2388526
https://www.invesco.com/us/en/Individual-investor.html

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

*Trust services offered through Raymond James Trust, N.A., a subsidiary of Raymond James Financial, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management and CSsports are not registered broker dealers and are independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.

Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.

Securities are offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.