Investments Remain Steady Through Elections

20 of the last 24 election years have shown steady stock market performance no matter who was elected, Republican or Democrat. In these 20 election years, the S&P 500 continued to provide an average of 11% returns. Over the last century, Dow Jones has provided a steady average of 10% returns, regardless of who was in office.

The reality is that the momentum of the investment market is greater than the political fluctuations of government leadership. Smart investments from last year will likely stay strong, and political policies rarely have a significant impact on them.

The Fed Has the Most Economic Influence

Regarding the profitability of investments and overall economic performance, the Fed has far more influence than the president or their administration. When the president or their lawmaking team releases a new economic policy, the effects are often unpredictable and not as impactful as intended. For example, the Affordable Care Act did not reduce hiring capacity, and the Tax Cut and Jobs Act did not significantly change the business landscape.

However, Fed policy changes have clearly had a more profound impact. Tighter financial policies negatively impacted the first two years of the Trump presidency, while the Obama presidency saw economic growth due to generous interest rates.

This Year, the Focus Is On Taxes

What are the economic policies being discussed by candidates in the coming election? Both candidates focus primarily on taxes that might subtly shift the balance toward large or small corporations or affect the cost of living. Harris focuses on tax deductions for small businesses, while Trump has proposed reducing corporate taxes for domestic-producing companies. Neither system will likely have an overwhelming impact on the long-term viability of your stock portfolio.

Maintain Your Long-Term Investments

The most important thing to remember is that long-term investments provide the most significant advantage when you stick to your long-term strategy. Election years may bring turmoil in many ways, but who is in the White House rarely has a major influence on the long-term profitability of investments or the overall inertial growth of the business sector. If you have invested wisely, your investment strategy can and should remain unchanged. History has shown that those who stay the course consistently see greater returns than those who enter and leave markets with the political winds.

What If Your Candidate Doesn't Win?

Perhaps one candidate is proposing policies that could benefit your portfolio. Maybe the other candidate proposes policies that seem less favorable. We believe that your finances will likely remain steady and long-term strategies will retain their viability, no matter who is elected.

While short-term volatility often spikes around election periods, the market tends to stabilize as uncertainty fades. Instead of reacting emotionally to election results, staying focused on your long-term goals and a well-diversified portfolio is crucial. Elections come and go, but a solid financial strategy can weather any political shift.

Contact us today for solid financial advice to help you invest confidently through the election.

Any opinions are those of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. 

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Trending Investments

It’s challenging to escape the noise of a bustling market, where the 24/7 news cycle on trending investments often dominates the mainstream media. This relentless coverage makes it difficult to ignore the constant hype around the next big opportunity.

Even the most prudent investors can be tempted, but their temptation is tempered with the skepticism of experience. How do you, somewhat less experienced but not risk-averse, avoid the trap of following the trends?

Stay steady, stay informed, and stay focused on your long-term goals.

The Pitfalls of Chasing Trending Investments

What makes a trend? A promising new technology, better than expected growth in a given sector, or, worse, the fruits of an intense marketing campaign?  How do novice investors identify risky trends?

FOMO

Perhaps the most insidious risk in chasing trends is FOMO — fear of missing out. It's easy to let your emotions take over good judgment when you're convinced you're missing out on the next unicorn. Remember that rising prices inevitably fall.

Timing

Another pitfall of FOMO investing is timing.  Rather than knee-jerk investing in the latest and loudest, research how the most recent sure things are doing — chances are strong initial investors sold for a loss. Wait and see how an investment performs before buying in. Long-term, waiting is a better plan.

Diversity

A balanced portfolio is the key to long-term success. If you're chasing the hot new things at the expense of diversification, you're increasing your risk exposure and slimming your cushion against the inevitable market slowdowns. The point of diversification is that you can ride out the bust markets with limited damage to your overall portfolio.

Focus on Strategy, Not Trending Investments

Savvy investors develop a strategy to collectively balance their financial goals, risk tolerance, and time frame. Focusing on trends diverges from a strategic plan, and too much straying can turn a well-thought-out plan into a sector-heavy mishmash.

Investment strategy is not static. Review your plan regularly and make adjustments as needed. Remember that all markets correct from time to time and that, overall, you see strong gains over time. Long-term investing that takes advantage of compounding growth is a better strategy than hopscotching from trend to trend.

A financial advisor can help you reduce the volume in a noisy market and keep you focused on your long-term goals rather than the daily ups and downs that are rarely indicative of real market movement.

A significant benefit of working with an advisor is that you become educated in finance and investing so that you can make more informed decisions. You'll also learn to identify market cycles and asset classes that are key to your financial planning. The more you understand the fundamentals of the market, the less likely you'll fall prey to trends.

Am I Letting Market Noise Drive My Investment Decisions?

Before you respond to the siren call of a trending investment decision, take a deep breath and ask yourself, "Is this a decision that aligns with my long-term strategy? Does it boost my diversification or put me at greater risk?"

There is little downside to slowing down and considering all the facets of trending investments. If the purchase is truly a long-term asset in your portfolio, waiting a few weeks will ultimately have little impact on your net worth.

Stay disciplined in your investing decisions to minimize risks. Don't rely on the media for critical information. Instead, focus on investing for the long term. Working with the team at CrossleyShear Wealth Management team, for example, we’ll design a portfolio mix that helps weather the inevitable ups and downs of the market.  Reach out to us today to learn more about our long term comprehensive financial planning approach.   

Any opinions are those of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear are not necessarily those of Raymond James.  Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.  The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  The information contained here does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material.  Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation.  Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification.  Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Retirement can appear like a dream if you base it entirely on the glossy pictures that you see put out by travel agencies and the like. Most of us can imagine a post-work life full of activities that we are truly excited to take part in. However, roughly 20% of Americans aged 50 or older have no retirement savings at all, and 61% are concerned about how they will afford retirement at all, according to an AARP survey. If you are concerned about your retirement savings or if you wonder how you can construct a plan that will work well for you, we want you to know that it is never too late to start, and we will help you figure out the process.

Starting Retirement Savings Early

There is an ironclad rule of retirement savings that you should know about, and it is that the earlier you start saving for retirement, the better. The sooner that you begin saving and investing for retirement, the longer your nest egg has to grow. Time is a hugely important factor when it comes to the total amount of retirement savings that you will ultimately enjoy. Compound interest in your investments will create a snowball effect on their growth and provide you with a larger nest egg when it is all said and done.

Estimating Your Retirement Needs

Every individual has specific needs regarding retirement. You can only figure out what your specific needs are once you have begun making some specific calculations. This is where our goal planning and monitoring (GPM) platform can come in handy.

This platform can help you nail down your specific retirement needs by running various savings variables and other factors that you might not have otherwise considered. This will help you figure out where you stand with things today and where you might need to pick up the slack.

Reviewing Your Current Retirement Savings

Another area where you can find great benefits from our GPM platform is in evaluating what your current savings picture looks like. You may think that you have some concept of how much money you have, but there is a decent chance that you aren't totaling up everything just perfectly. Remember, you must consider the following accounts when calculating your total savings:

• 401(k) savings
• Roth IRA savings
• Savings accounts
• Any other investment accounts designated for retirement

It is only when you put this entire picture together that you can start to see how it all works and where your actual savings total lands.

Maximize Employer-Sponsored Benefits

If you are not taking advantage of the employer-sponsored investment benefits offered at your job, then you are missing out. Many employers offer their employees the opportunity to invest in a variety of retirement plans. Not only that, but many employers offer matching funds (up to a certain contribution level) to help their employees gain even more from their investments. Make sure you capitalize on everything your employer has to offer in this respect.

Utilizing Catch-Up Contributions

As we mentioned at the top, there are many people who are near retirement who do not have the kind of retirement savings that they need. That said, there are catch-up contributions that can be made by those who are above a certain age to help them regain some of the ground that they have lost over time. If you feel like you are behind on your retirement savings, look at using catch-up contributions to help regain some ground.

Planning for Longevity

You don't want to outlive your retirement savings, and that means that you need to plan for longevity. Using our GPM platform, you can create a plan for yourself regarding how you will do this. You may want to consider certain options, such as:

• Delaying Retirement - You may need to wait a few extra years before you retire to ensure you have enough money to last for your entire retirement.
• Invest in Annuities - Annuities will pay you a certain amount of money each year that can help keep you afloat throughout retirement.
• Work Part-Time - It may be necessary to keep at least a part-time job while in retirement just to pay the bills. Consider doing this as well if you are planning on a long retirement.

Our GPM platform can help you figure out a strategy that is just right for you.

Regularly Review and Adjust Your Plan for Retirement Savings

Look at regularly reviewing and adjusting your plan as time goes on. Our GPM platform can keep you on the right path and guide you toward the answers that you need. For more information on how it all works and to get started today, please reach out and contact us now.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of the author/speaker and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. The forgoing is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security or any combination of securities.

Election years are a time of uncertainty. Whether you are a home buyer or seller, your attention may be drawn away from real estate during the few crucial months leading up to the election. This may also cause you some concern as to whether the real estate market itself will be impacted by the election. How do elections impact real estate?

While there is some small change in the housing market during an election year, the good news is that you likely have nothing to worry about. Election years, as a whole, do not cause the housing market to break from larger trends. Home prices typically remain on the rise, and the occasional dip is not perceptibly election-related in any previous election year.

You can gain confidence in this fact by looking at historical data.

Election Years Do Not Impact the Economy

Overall, presidential elections do not have a perceptible impact on the economy. US Bank reports that there is no direct link between an election year and stock market outcomes. Gale Academic research has uncovered that the theory of a slower economic year during an election is not only a myth but that any economic indicators have been historically stronger during election years.

This is also true in the real estate industry. Data from the NAR shows that election years generally do not impact the home price trend perceptibly. Whether prices were following a multi-year trend of rising or falling, election years caused no significant change to the larger trend.

Home Price Trends

Real Estate Sales Remain Steady in Election Years

Just as home prices are unimpacted, so too is the rate of home sales. Home sellers can likely rest easy knowing that buyers are still making plans to buy in an election year. HUD NAR provides data that suggests election years maintain the home purchasing trend. However, home purchase rates may typically increase in the year after an election. This may be because the tension of the election is released. More people than usual feel confident making long-term decisions once they know who the president will be.

As you can see, the data shows that the number of home sales has gone up in the year after an election for the last 8 elections (since 1992) and has gone up for 9 of the last 11 elections since 1978.

The Dip: November Elections Impact on Real Estate

Historically a presidential election does have one small influence on the housing market: Home sales tend to slow down in November. Economist Ali Wolf reports that people may be cautious about making a big decision during the height of presidential election uncertainty. They will tend to put off on bidding or buying a house until they can be sure what to expect in terms of policy in the near future.

The good news is that the slowdown is not profound and doesn't last very long. Home sales typically pick back up to full speed by mid-December, and trends have resumed their normal course by April. Home sellers will see the full return of buyers, and buyers may see a new surge of available homes on the market as the election tension is resolved.

Mortgages Remain Unchanged

Mortgage rates also follow their own trends, and election years do not consistently impact mortgage rate increases or decreases. Freddie Mac reports that mortgage rates have decreased in the years leading up to 8 of the last 11 presidential elections, but these numbers follow existing trends as well.

2024-2025 Is a Safe Time to Buy or Sell a House

If you're looking to buy a home or are preparing a house to sell, don't worry about how elections impact real estate. Rest assured that the myth of the election year slow-down is just that: a myth. Both home prices and the rate of sales will likely remain steady, following existing trends. There may be a slight dip in activity in November, but not enough to cause a noticeable difference in the yearly totals.

Preparing to enter the housing market? CrossleyShear Wealth Management can help. Contact us today for your financial planning needs.

Any opinions are those of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  This information is intended to be educational and is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific investor.  The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Ð'dLinks are being provided for informational purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website users and/or members.