From the Desk of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear
As we approach Thanksgiving, we’re hoping that you and your loved ones can find a safe way to celebrate – whether a smaller than usual gathering or via Zoom, it’s such a great day to think about what’s positive in your life and forget, even for a moment, about the negative of 2020. With the COVID-19 pandemic, rollercoaster-like markets and an unprecedented presidential election, 2020 will not soon be forgotten. Despite all that, we both feel that we have so much to be grateful for, particularly during these times. We speak for the entire team in saying that we’re extremely thankful for our clients. We truly appreciate you entrusting us with your financial well-being, particularly as we approached the uncertainty with the election cycle.
Leading up to, and now after the unprecedented presidential election, we’ve been completely inundated with news and headlines and not surprisingly, the election drew the highest percentage of registered voters since the presidential election in 1900. The polls predicted a blue wave, but as it stands today, Biden is President-elect, the Democrats maintain the House majority and the Republicans will most likely retain the Senate. However, much attention will be focused on runoff elections, particularly in Georgia. Recounts and potential legal challenges, in addition to runoff elections in January, could reshape what we know today, but probably not significantly.
Below are key takeaways related to economic policies that we expect to take shape in the new administration. These key takeaways are discussed in more detail by Larry Adam, CIO and Washington Policy Analyst, Ed Mills in Raymond James’ 2020 Election Policy Insights, a collection of videos and articles. (https://www.raymondjames.com/commentary-and-insights/washington-policy).
1. Watch for a new, probably smaller fiscal stimulus package, possibly by the end of the year and likely before December 11 when the federal spending agreement is set to expire.
2. Moving forward, the Fed monetary policy will likely remain largely the same, providing continued liquidity and low-interest rates.
3. Taxes will likely not increase if the Republicans maintain the majority in the Senate. Otherwise, a 10% decrease in corporate earnings is possible in 2021.
4. Look for improved trade relations, particularly with Europe, potentially resulting in increased earnings for large multinational U.S. companies.
The makeup of government in Washington, DC is important to your investments, but there are other essential components. The overall economy, earnings growth, the policy of the Fed and secular factors all play a part in the markets. These factors all have an effect on portfolio performance and we take them into consideration when constructing your portfolios. With that in mind, we hope you can forget about the headlines for just one day and enjoy some turkey and stuffing. We hope you and your loved ones have a very happy Thanksgiving!
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There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.