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Investment Insights: What If My Candidate Doesn’t Get Elected?
With the 2024 election looming just a few weeks away, it's difficult to tell which candidate will win. Both candidates have made firm statements regarding their economic plans and policies, and of course, these plans differ based on their parties and goals. But will these economic policies impact your investments one way or the other after someone takes office? What if your candidate doesn't get elected, and the other team's policies are put into play?
The good news is that, statistically, your investments are quite safe.
Investments Remain Steady Through Elections
20 of the last 24 election years have shown steady stock market performance no matter who was elected, Republican or Democrat. In these 20 election years, the S&P 500 continued to provide an average of 11% returns. Over the last century, Dow Jones has provided a steady average of 10% returns, regardless of who was in office.
The reality is that the momentum of the investment market is greater than the political fluctuations of government leadership. Smart investments from last year will likely stay strong, and political policies rarely have a significant impact on them.
The Fed Has the Most Economic Influence
Regarding the profitability of investments and overall economic performance, the Fed has far more influence than the president or their administration. When the president or their lawmaking team releases a new economic policy, the effects are often unpredictable and not as impactful as intended. For example, the Affordable Care Act did not reduce hiring capacity, and the Tax Cut and Jobs Act did not significantly change the business landscape.
However, Fed policy changes have clearly had a more profound impact. Tighter financial policies negatively impacted the first two years of the Trump presidency, while the Obama presidency saw economic growth due to generous interest rates.
This Year, the Focus Is On Taxes
What are the economic policies being discussed by candidates in the coming election? Both candidates focus primarily on taxes that might subtly shift the balance toward large or small corporations or affect the cost of living. Harris focuses on tax deductions for small businesses, while Trump has proposed reducing corporate taxes for domestic-producing companies. Neither system will likely have an overwhelming impact on the long-term viability of your stock portfolio.
Maintain Your Long-Term Investments
The most important thing to remember is that long-term investments provide the most significant advantage when you stick to your long-term strategy. Election years may bring turmoil in many ways, but who is in the White House rarely has a major influence on the long-term profitability of investments or the overall inertial growth of the business sector. If you have invested wisely, your investment strategy can and should remain unchanged. History has shown that those who stay the course consistently see greater returns than those who enter and leave markets with the political winds.
What If Your Candidate Doesn't Win?
Perhaps one candidate is proposing policies that could benefit your portfolio. Maybe the other candidate proposes policies that seem less favorable. We believe that your finances will likely remain steady and long-term strategies will retain their viability, no matter who is elected.
While short-term volatility often spikes around election periods, the market tends to stabilize as uncertainty fades. Instead of reacting emotionally to election results, staying focused on your long-term goals and a well-diversified portfolio is crucial. Elections come and go, but a solid financial strategy can weather any political shift.
Contact us today for solid financial advice to help you invest confidently through the election.
Any opinions are those of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification.
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2024 Economic Sneak Preview
Are the “What if Monsters” keeping you up at night?
The truth is the state of the economy and market trends are cyclical and will always experience periods of highs and lows. Worrying about market crashes and what might happen next is a natural fear, but it shouldn’t keep you up at night. Even with highs and lows, history tells that those invested in the markets earn significantly more over the long term. A financial plan based on a sound, long-term investment strategy is the best way to ensure your financial future – and a better night’s sleep.
What to Expect This Year
This year, we see a financial landscape that is far less bleak than many had predicted. There will likely be a mild recession early in the year due to ongoing financial pressure, but this should only be mild due to several strong economic factors. The economy is already in a state of rebound as we see the sheer force of the U.S. economy’s forward momentum begin to counteract recent economic challenges.
The U.S. Economy Is Resilient
The first and most important factor is that the U.S. economy is still going strong. Despite the recent rise of inflation and the aggressive increase in the interest rate, the U.S. economy grew faster in Q2 of 2023 than it has since Q4 of 2021. The economy recently increased by 4.9%, which places us at the front of the Developed Market ratings. Also, we have been growing more rapidly since 2019 than any other G7 country.
Recent economic pressure may create a mild recession in early 2024, but this is no slowdown.
Strong Labor Market
The labor market is one of the strongest aspects of the U.S. economy. In the past 24 months, employers added 8.4 million jobs to the market. This was met with a record number of people joining the job market to fill the demand. We have reached 161 million known workers, with many more working as entrepreneurs and upholding the gig economy. This number rose from 158.5 million workers before COVID-19.
The push for better pay is also booming, seeing an average hourly earning increase of 4.4% in the last year. That increase is still outpacing inflation to help keep the cost of living within an affordable margin.
Inflation Stabilizing
Both inflation and interest rates are finally stabilizing, so we can predict a more financially stable year for 2024. 2023 has been wild with inflation-curbing interest rate increases. We are starting to see a trend of disinflation, with a return to more affordable prices for energy, goods, and transportation costs.
As the interest rates stabilize, we should also see another surge in real estate. Buyers can increasingly make their decisions with greater confidence regarding the interest rate by the time a deal is ready to close.
Equity Market Gains
Despite the predictions that the stock market would experience a drop this year, we have seen the S&P 500 rise by 20% this year. This is almost double the annual historical average, serving as more proof that the equity market is stronger than ever. We are taking a particular look at the MAGMAN portfolio, which makes up over 75% of the returns of the S&P 500. MAGMAN (MSFT, APPL, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NVDA) has risen 69% in this year to date.
Income Is Resuming in Fixed Income Investments
There is a positive side to the increased interest rate, of course. Those who have invested in bonds are benefitting from the increased interest. This can provide an excellent source of income compared to other forms of investments. Bonds now offer a chance to lock in these high-level return rates.
Ensure You have a Long-Term Financial Plan
If you are ready to turn the current economic landscape to your advantage, working with a financial planner is the best way to gain both insights and opportunities and most importantly, a long-term financial plan.
Contact us today for your initial consultation and learn more about our financial planning expertise.
Already working with an advisor? Reach out and schedule an appointment for a second opinion regarding your current financial plan.
Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this email does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice.This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Raymond James is not affiliated with nor sponsors or endorses any of the aforementioned organizations. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability.If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment.Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value.There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices.Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.
Dale Crossley Named to Raymond James 2024 Chairman’s Council
Market downturns are inevitable, and the most successful strategy during these times is to take advantage of potential values and keep your eye on your long-term financial plan.
- "If you wait for the robins, spring will be over.” – Warren Buffet
- “Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” – Warren Buffet
- "You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." — Peter Lynch
- “In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.” – Warren Buffet
- "Bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.” – Warren Buffet
- "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." — Robert Arnott
- "Never bet against America. That is as true today as it was in 1789, during the Civil War, and in the depths of the Depression.” – Warren Buffet
- “The true investor welcomes volatility… a wildly fluctuating market means that irrationally low prices will periodically be attached to solid businesses.” – Warren Buffet
- “How many millionaires do you know who have become wealthy by investing in savings accounts? I rest my case.” — Robert G. Allen
- "When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the "Hallelujah Chorus" in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up, we weep.” – Warren Buffet
- “Invest for the long haul. Don’t get too greedy and don’t get too scared.” – Shelby M.C. Davis
- “I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors, be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffet
- “A market downturn doesn’t bother us. It is an opportunity to increase our ownership of great companies with great management at good prices.” – Warren Buffet
- “All intelligent investing is value investing. Acquiring more that you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.” — Charlie Munger
- “The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down.” – Warren Buffet
- “Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well.” – Warren Buffet
- “I love quotes… but in the end, knowledge has to be converted to action or it’s worthless.” — Tony Robbins
CrossleyShear Wealth Management’s Partners, Evan Shear and Dale Crossley, Once Again Named to Forbes Best-in-State Wealth Advisors List
HEATHROW/MERRITT ISLAND, FLORIDA, April 12, 2023 – CrossleyShear Wealth Management (CrossleyShear), a team of premier financial planning and wealth management advisors, announced today that CrossleyShear founding partners Evan Shear and Dale Crossley have been named to the Forbes distinguished list of Best-in-State Wealth Advisors for 2023. This is the third consecutive year both Shear and Crossley have appeared on this prestigious list and the sixth consecutive year that at least one partner has received the honor. Nominees are carefully vetted through research and interviews and assigned a ranking based on an algorithm of qualitative and quantitative criteria. For 2023, Forbes received approximately 39,007 nominations and only 7,321 advisors received the award.
“Dale and I are once again honored and proud to appear on the Best-in-State Wealth Advisors list, but view this as an important recognition for our entire team. Their dedication and commitment to providing comprehensive financial planning and client-centric care is the foundation of our success,” said Evan Shear, Co-Founder and Branch Manager of CrossleyShear Wealth Management and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional. “Above all, we thank our clients for this honor, for consistently placing their trust and confidence in us through market ups and downs,” added Dale Crossley, JD, Co-Founder of CrossleyShear Wealth Management, Branch Manager and Financial Planner – RJFS.
To learn more about CrossleyShear Wealth Management and the team’s financial planning and wealth management solutions, visit CrossleyShear.com. For more information about CSsports, visit CSsports.net.
About CrossleyShear Wealth Management | Since 1998, CrossleyShear Wealth Management has served as a premier financial planning team dedicated to helping provide clients and families with innovative financial solutions and wealth management strategies. With offices in Heathrow and Merritt Island, Florida, the company’s tailored customer care philosophy and customized planning process helps empower its clients to achieve their financial goals and financial independence. Their professional athlete division, CSsports, is exclusively dedicated to serving the unique needs of sports professionals before, during and after their playing careers. Visit CrossleyShearWealthManagement and CSsports.net to learn more.
1515 International Parkway, Suite 2019, Heathrow, FL 32746
407.215.7575
2395 N. Courtenay Parkway, Suite 201, Merritt Island, FL 32953
321.452.0061
CrossleyShear Wealth Management and CSsports are not registered broker dealers and are independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.
Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.
The Forbes Top Wealth Advisors Best-In-State 2023 ranking, developed by SHOOK Research, is based on an algorithm of qualitative criteria, mostly gained through telephone and in-person due diligence interviews, and quantitative data. This ranking is based upon the period from 6/30/2021 to 6/30/2022 and was released on 4/4/2023. Those advisors that are considered have a minimum of seven years of experience, and the algorithm weights factors like revenue trends, assets under management, compliance records, industry experience and those that encompass best practices in their practices and approach to working with clients. Portfolio performance is not a criteria due to varying client objectives and lack of audited data. Out of approximately 39,007 nominations, 7,321 advisors received the award. This ranking is not indicative of an advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients’ experience. Neither Raymond James nor any of its Financial Advisors or RIA firms pay a fee in exchange for this award/rating. Raymond James is not affiliated with Forbes or Shook Research, LLC. Please visit https://www.forbes.com/lists/best-in-state-wealth-advisors/?sh=181ba856ab97 for more info.
Evan Shear Named to Raymond James 2023 Chairman’s Council
HEATHROW/MERRITT ISLAND, FLORIDA, December 20, 2022 – CrossleyShear Wealth Management (CrossleyShear), a leading financial planning and wealth management firm based in Merritt Island and Heathrow, Florida, announced today that Evan Shear was once again named a member of Raymond James Chairman’s Council.* Chairman’s Council honors are presented annually to those financial advisors who have demonstrated an unparalleled commitment to client care, professional integrity and the most stringent fiduciary standards. This is Shear’s fifth year gaining membership to the prestigious council.
“Being named to the 2023 Chairman’s Council is certainly an honor, but it takes an entire dedicated and passionate team to deliver on our promise of exemplary client-centric service. We’re fortunate to have such a team – one that’s fully committed to the needs of our clients and their loved ones,” stated Evan Shear, Co-Founder and Branch Manager of CrossleyShear Wealth Management, and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional. “Helping our clients feel confident that their financial goals are well within reach is a mission we wholeheartedly embrace and it truly inspires us on a daily basis.”
Shear and his partner, Dale Crossley, have developed comprehensive financial planning solutions and time-tested wealth management strategies for nearly 25 years. CrossleyShear manages more than $600 million** in client assets and offers a wide variety of services, including retirement planning, investment and asset management, trust and estate planning, education planning and executive wealth management. The company also serves the complex financial and wealth management needs of sports professionals through CSsports, a division of CrossleyShear Wealth Management.
To learn more about CrossleyShear Wealth Management and the team’s financial planning and wealth management solutions, visit CrossleyShear.com. For more information about CSsports, visit CSsports.net.
About CrossleyShear Wealth Management | Since 1998, CrossleyShear Wealth Management has served as a premier financial planning team dedicated to helping provide clients and families with innovative financial solutions and wealth management strategies. With offices in Heathrow and Merritt Island, Florida, the company’s tailored customer care philosophy and customized planning process helps empower its clients to achieve their financial goals and financial independence. Their professional athlete division, CSsports, is exclusively dedicated to serving the unique needs of sports professionals before, during and after their playing careers. Visit CrossleyShearWealthManagement and CSsports.net to learn more.
1515 International Parkway, Suite 2019, Heathrow, FL 32746
407.215.7575
2395 N. Courtenay Parkway, Suite 201, Merritt Island, FL 32953
321.452.0061
Trust services offered through Raymond James Trust, N.A., a subsidiary of Raymond James Financial, Inc. CrossleyShear Wealth Management and CSsports are not registered broker dealers and are independent of Raymond James Financial Services. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC.
*Membership is based on prior fiscal year production. Re-qualification is required annually. The ranking may not be representative of any one client’s experience, is not an endorsement, and is not indicative of an advisor’s future performance. No fee is paid in exchange for this award/rating.
**As of 12/01/2022.
Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.