Significant shifts in power can lead to interruptions in the government. With such a massive overturn as we experienced in the most recent election, the concern of a government shutdown is lurking in the minds of many. These events can lead to uncertainty about the impact on the economy, financial markets, and personal finances for those who rely on government paychecks or contracts.

With the headlines buzzing, it's easy for the "What if Monster" to creep in and make you worry about your financial stability. You may worry about delayed paychecks, market volatility, or economic slowdowns due to an impending shutdown. However, we can tell you from experience and long-term data that while shutdowns can cause short-term disruptions, strong financial planning provides the stability you need to navigate temporary times of uncertainty with confidence.

What Happens During a Government Shutdown?

A government shutdown is when Congress fails to pass a funding bill - typically due to voting disputes. This leads to a temporary closure of non-essential federal operations due to a lack of legal funding. Core services like Social Security, Medicare, and National Security will continue to operate. However, other acutely essential aspects can be affected by the shutdown.

• Government Employee Pay
  • Certain federal government employees may experience a delayed paycheck.
  • This is usually compensated with backpay once the shutdown is over.
• Federal Benefits
  • Some federal benefits and services may be put on hold for a temporary lack of funding.
  • These benefits will resume when the funding bill is passed.
• Economic Growth
  • If prolonged, a shutdown can impact the growth of consumer and commercial economic forces.
  • These markets recover quickly when the interruption is removed.
• Market Volatility
  • More mercurial markets and traders may become volatile during the government shutdown.
  • Long-term strategies are often unaffected by this temporary blip.

While a shutdown can cause temporary disruptions, financial markets, and the broader economy have historically recovered once government funding resumes.

How a Shutdown Could Affect You

A government shutdown is not without impact, and awareness of how that impact can affect you can help you prepare for the tumultuous waters ahead. The effect of a government shutdown primarily depends on how long it lasts.

• Stock Market Volatility
  • The stock market may experience short-term spikes or dips in stock value. However, historical data shows that markets almost always stabilize back to normal levels.
• Federal Employee and Contractor Pay
  • Paychecks and benefits can experience a temporary delay that results in financial stress. However, if you can hold out, backpay will be granted after the shutdown concludes.
• Tax Refunds and Loan Processing
  • Essential IRS functions continue, but certain federal tax services may be delayed. This can include the processing of federally backed loans, such as mortgages and small business loans.
• Consumer Confidence and Spending
  • A prolonged government shutdown can influence the overall economic momentum.

Keeping the 'What if Monster' Quiet

A government shutdown may be an unsettling occurrence, but it is not as big a disaster as it seems. Preparation and thoughtful financial planning can help you to minimize the impact on your finances, both regarding short-term funds and long-term goals. The following steps can help you manage your finances smoothly and keep the "What if Monster" at bay.

1. Emergency Fund

• Prepare your savings to cover 3-6 months of expenses. This can provide a cushion if you rely on federally sourced income that might be disruptive.

1. Long-Term Investment

• Stick to your long-term investment strategy. While markets can fluctuate during a government shutdown, responding to this volatility can be more harmful than beneficial. Hold fast and wait for the market to re-stabilize. Your long-term goals will likely stay on course.

1. Plan for Federal Service Delays

• If you rely on federal services, be aware that delays are possible. Make plans for interim services, stock up on supplies, and contact alternative support organizations to help you get through.

1. Minimize Expenses

• If you anticipate that an imminent shutdown could impact your finances, minimize unnecessary spending to help your budget flex more efficiently according to circumstances and needs.

Final Thoughts

Government shutdowns, while upsetting, are a natural part of our democratic system. Sometimes Congress has disagreements and the Federal budget is delayed as a result. These shutdowns come and go, but greater market trends are more powerful.

Shutdowns can cause temporary financial disruption, but they should not derail a well-thought-out financial plan. By preparing for interruptions in advance and focusing on your long-term financial health, you can keep the "What if Monster" from disturbing your sleep or your household stability.

If you have concerns about how a government shutdown may affect your financial future, we're here to help. Let's review your strategy and ensure you're prepared for any uncertainty that comes your way.

Any opinions are those of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided in the attached article will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including asset allocation and diversification. 

From the Desk of Dale Crossley and Evan Shear 

We hope your 2025 is off to a great start! To kick off the year on the right foot, we’re diving into key topics like annual reviews, estate planning, effective communication, and a few fun health tips on what else – the benefits of dancing! After all, we firmly believe that financial health and your emotional and physical health are interconnected. Financial freedom reduces stress, and good overall health promotes longevity so you can enjoy a long, happy retirement!

CrossleyShear Annual Reviews

An annual review with our clients is required to help you look deeper at your current investment portfolio. The review process will guide you through ensuring that your portfolio aligns with your investment goals. It will also help you consider your desired risk levels and any recent life changes that might have affected those objectives in the last year. Your participation is essential so we can understand your evolving financial needs and continue to provide you with the highest degree of service and support.

Please don't hesitate to contact us or schedule your review meeting here at your earliest convenience.

A Fresh Start—Is Your Estate Plan Up to Date?

The new year is also a great time to update your estate plan. Estate planning addresses the distribution of assets to key beneficiaries in the event of your demise. Of course, a person's assets and the needs of their beneficiaries often change over time. Keeping your estate plan up-to-date and keeping your beneficiaries informed is essential.

Make sure your named beneficiaries are up to date on the details of your estate plan, update your assets, and adapt your plan to your family's evolving needs.

Reminder: Compliance-Approved Texting Available – But Not for Financial Orders

As a reminder, we have compliance-approved numbers for texting, making it easier to stay in touch with your advisor. However, for security and regulatory reasons, financial orders cannot be accepted via text, email, or voicemail.

Orders can only be placed in person or over the phone.

Please continue using the designated compliance-approved numbers below for texting:

Dale Crossley Private Wealth Advisor | Branch Manager, RJFS: 321.455.0440

Evan Shear CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER® | Branch Manager, RJFS: 407.638.8675

Catalina Mejia-Hensel Financial Advisor: 321.340.6700

Shaun Jones Financial Advisor: 321.359.7709

We appreciate your cooperation in keeping our communications secure and compliant!

Dance Your Way to a Healthier, Happier 2025

If you want 2025 to be even better than 2024, prioritizing your health is a great place to start. When you feel your best, you have more energy, focus, and clarity to enjoy and optimize the year ahead. One simple yet powerful way to enhance both your physical and mental well-being? Dancing.

Dancing is a fun and effective way to boost cardiovascular health, improve flexibility, and even enhance the quality of your sleep. Studies show that dancing helps reduce stress, elevate mood, and promote deeper, more restorative rest by releasing endorphins and lowering cortisol levels. Just a few minutes of movement each day can help you feel more refreshed, energized, and ready to take on new challenges.

At CrossleyShear, we believe in overall wellness—financial, physical, and emotional. Just as small, consistent steps can improve your health, they also lead to financial confidence and well-being. Whether you're dancing to relieve stress or setting financial goals for the future, simple, sustainable actions can help you create a more balanced and fulfilling life.

If financial stress keeps you up at night, we’re here to help you develop a strategy that allows you to focus on what matters most—your well-being and the life you’ve built. Let’s make 2025 a great year together—one step (or dance) at a time!

Any opinions are those of CrossleyShear Wealth Management and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Document shredding and food drive

Clean out your cabinets and drawers of those old documents and bring them to be safely shredded, on site, by the professionals of Shred it™ and enjoy some good food and live music!

When: May 31st

Where: Outside of the Merritt Island office 2395 N. Courtenay Parkway

Time: 11:00am-2:00pm

Please consider bringing a non-perishable food item for our Food Drive to benefit Harvest Time International

Please Donate:

Low sodium canned vegetables - Canned meats - Canned soups - Boxed oatmeal or grits - Canola or olive oil - Peanut butter - Nuts - No sugar added fruit cups - Canned beans - Granola/Protein bars - Pasta - Beans - Rice - Dry powdered milk

Questions please contact

Karin@crossleyshear.com or call 321-452-0061

Raymond James is not affiliated with Harvest Time International, Shred-it, or 4th Street Fillin Station.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

No timing needed

Help overcome market timing and loss aversion with dollar-cost averaging.

Dollar-cost averaging — regularly investing money in the market — is an age-old strategy for mitigating investment price risk. Commonly applied by 401(k) plan savers, it could also be a useful strategy for experienced investors with larger sums, especially during periods of uncertainty or when emotional reluctance is high.

Dollar-cost averaging: the theory behind the practice

Dollar-cost averaging involves regularly investing a consistent amount of money to purchase a specific asset, or group of assets, regardless of their price. For example, an employer-sponsored 401(k) plan is set up this way. With each paycheck, you invest a regular percentage of your earnings in defined assets, generally mutual funds, that you have previously selected.

This strategy helps prevent you from stressing over decisions on when to invest in the market. With the regular-investment approach, you don’t focus on whether the asset you’re purchasing is at a good price for purchase. Rather than try to time the market, you buy it each week or month or whatever the interval is.

The theory underpinning this strategy is that asset prices will go up and down in unpredictable ways, and if you buy shares regularly, the average share price you pay – that is, the dollar-cost average – won’t be too high. When prices are lower, your money will buy more shares than the same amount will buy when prices are higher, bringing down your price-per-share cost. This, in turn, can help reduce the impact of market volatility on your portfolio.

Potential benefits and limitations of dollar-cost averaging

In addition to the theoretical benefit of avoiding an overly high purchase price, dollar-cost averaging presents other potential benefits.

For relatively early savers, regularly investing in the market builds the investing habit and may help you feel more at ease with investing in general.

For those with large cash balances, it can be a way to invest – or reinvest. Cash tends to lose value over time due to inflation. Especially as interest rates go down, cutting into your cash’s return potential, dollar-cost averaging can help address the emotional challenge of loss aversion, which often has the potential to lead to inaction.

However, dollar cost averaging could also leave some returns on the table when markets are rallying, and it does not mitigate some other investment risks.

Another approach: lump-sum investing

Given that time in the market is often an advantage, investing all your money at once could be more effective than investing it incrementally over time. This all-in approach is known as lump-sum investing.

Lump-sum investing can be an effective strategy given certain market conditions. For example, in a rising market, particular assets will rise in price on average, so investing a lump sum at the outset can enable you to acquire more shares, and therefore more value, compared to investing fixed amounts over time.

But if you invest all your money at once, and the price drops, you may suffer losses that could persist for a few years or longer. Under these conditions, dollar-cost averaging would lead to owning more shares.

With dollar-cost averaging, you can avoid the risk that you’ve mistimed the market.

Choosing the right strategy for you

There’s no one-size-fits all answer when it comes to your investment strategy. Whether dollar-cost averaging is the right strategy for your investment goals depends on multiple factors, including the time horizon to your financial goal, your available cash, market conditions, and investment opportunities.

Your financial advisor can help you weigh these different considerations and make a choice that feels right for you.

There is no assurance any investment strategy will be successful. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of capital. Dollar cost averaging does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss. It involves continuous investment regardless of fluctuating price levels of such securities. Investors should consider their financial ability to continue purchases through periods of low-price levels..

Sources: forbes.com; cnbc.com; etrade.com; ndvr.com; aarp.org

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.

Through the back door to bigger retirement savings

“Backdoor” strategies let you enjoy the benefits of a Roth while getting around some of the limitations.

For people looking to build a balanced retirement savings portfolio, a Roth IRA can serve as a great companion to an employer plan such as a 401(k). But if you earn too much money, you may not qualify to invest fully – or at all – in a Roth IRA. And no matter how much you earn, you may find that contribution limits prevent you from building as fat a fund as you’d like.

Fortunately, there are “backdoor” strategies that may help you get around these limitations. Here’s what you need to know.

Backdoor Roth IRA
Once your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) tops $161,000 for single filers or $240,000 if married and filing jointly, the IRS begins phasing out your ability to invest directly in a Roth IRA.

But you can contribute after-tax dollars to a traditional IRA, then shortly thereafter convert those funds to a Roth IRA. Because there are no income limits restricting your ability to put after-tax dollars in a regular IRA, you can use this backdoor strategy to build a Roth IRA no matter how much you earn.

You can’t go through this backdoor if you own any IRAs with any pretax dollars in them. The reasons for that are complicated, but it all boils down to two IRS rules (the pro rata rule and the aggregation rule). Consulting your financial advisor and tax professional prior to doing a backdoor Roth is a smart move, to ensure that you’re following every rule.

Mega backdoor Roth IRA
If your problem is not how much you earn but the size of contribution limits, there’s a mega backdoor strategy that could help boost your savings.

For 2024, the limits on how much you can contribute to an IRA are $7,000, or $8,000 if you’re over 50. A mega backdoor strategy may empower you to put away much more than that.

Your current employer must offer a 401(k) or 403(b) plan, and you must pay into it. Whichever of those plans you use must also allow employees to make after-tax contributions into the plan, which count above and beyond employee elective deferral limits.

This is simplest to achieve if your employer offers a Roth option attached to its retirement plans, one that supports in-plan conversions to the Roth – that’s your mega backdoor to a bigger retirement fund.

There are plan-specific limits on how much you may contribute in after-tax dollars to convert into the Roth, and are other rules affecting whether you can apply a backdoor strategy and how big a fund you can build. Again, a chat with your financial and tax advisors is an essential step in any backdoor plan.

Pros of backdoor Roth IRAs:

• You may still be able to fund a Roth IRA even if your income is above IRS limits.
• If you have access to an employer plan with a Roth feature, you may be able to save more than the usual IRA limits.
• Because the money going into the Roth has already been taxed, you can take tax-free distributions in retirement.

Cons of backdoor Roth IRAs:

• Not everyone will be eligible to apply a backdoor or mega backdoor approach.
• Typically, only high earners benefit.
• Both require careful planning with a tax professional.

Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Unless certain criteria are met, Roth IRA owners must be 59 1/2 or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted. Additionally, each converted amount may be subject to its own five-year holding period. Converting a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA has tax implications. Investors should consult a tax advisor before deciding to do a conversion.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website’s users and/or members. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional.